Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.05528e-05           9          75          15           1           0        B4.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.57198e-05           5          52          39           4           0        B9.0
GOES Xray  =   3.11002e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.3
est. ISN   =       50.0000           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                             7.00       57.25       31.00        4.50        0.25     B6.6
 
realized                                                                                      B5.0