Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.29628e-05           1           2          78          19           0        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.07968e-05           1           5          74          20           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.27347e-07           1          11          80           8           0        C1.8
est. ISN   =       60.0000           3          17          61          18           1        C3.2
 
together                             1.50        8.75       73.25       16.25        0.25     C2.9
 
realized                                                                                      C3.2