Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.69625e-05           4          46          47           3           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.50280e-05           1           1          45          43          10        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   6.18972e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =       77.0000           1           9          59          28           3        C4.9
 
together                             3.25       31.75       43.00       18.75        3.25     C1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B8.1