Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.62810e-05           1           0          48          43           8        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.29433e-05           1           1          40          43          15        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.52583e-07           1           0          45          44          10        M1.1
est. ISN   =       72.0000           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.75        1.50       47.00       41.50        9.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C6.2