Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.73027e-05           1           4          52          40           3        C8.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.87632e-05           1           0          71          26           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   2.32410e-07           1           2          62          31           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       73.0000           1           6          54          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.75        3.25       59.75       33.00        3.25     C6.6
 
realized                                                                                      C4.3