Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.14441e-05           1           0          38          47          14        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.52203e-05           1           0          58          34           7        C8.3
GOES Xray  =   2.16588e-07           1           1          64          30           4        C6.7
est. ISN   =       56.0000           2          19          62          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             0.75        5.25       55.75       31.75        6.50     C6.8
 
realized                                                                                      C5.2