Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.41329e-05           1           1          49          42           7        C9.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.93584e-05           1           1          36          48          14        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.29977e-07           1           1          66          29           3        C6.0
est. ISN   =       65.0000           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             1.00        4.00       53.50       35.00        6.50     C7.7
 
realized                                                                                      M4.0