Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.07597e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.82363e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.50144e-07           1           0          40          49          10        M1.2
est. ISN   =       78.0000           1           5          65          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             0.75        1.50       49.75       39.25        8.75     C9.5
 
realized                                                                                      M2.3