Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.86281e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.11081e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.79379e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       73.0000           1           6          54          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.50        1.75       44.75       43.75        9.25     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C7.2