Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.16014e-05           1           0          36          49          14        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.16568e-05           1           2          39          46          12        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.52033e-07           1           0          45          45           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =       75.0000           1          10          50          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.75        3.00       42.75       43.75        9.75     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      M2.0