Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.35818e-06          53          44           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.73900e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   8.66900e-08           4          50          43           3           0        B9.6
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            31.00       52.50       15.50        1.00        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                      B9.7