Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.10314e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.37833e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.99740e-08          16          84           0           0           0        B2.3
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            43.25       53.75        3.00        0.00        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)