Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.48802e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.90312e-06          14          75          11           0           0        B4.2
GOES Xray  =   1.10592e-07           2          22          72           4           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            24.00       51.25       23.75        1.00        0.00     B4.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1