Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.07152e-05           9          74          16           1           0        B5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.27773e-05           7          60          32           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.66855e-07           1           5          76          18           0        C3.8
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            11.25       47.75       35.50        5.50        0.00     B7.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0