Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.17019e-06          54          45           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.54875e-06          35          64           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   6.84101e-08           5          68          27           0           0        B7.1
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            27.50       60.50       11.25        0.75        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B7.2