Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.22233e-05           5          28          60           7           0        C1.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.87911e-05           5          30          60           5           0        C1.2
GOES Xray  =   8.51507e-08           4          51          42           3           0        B9.6
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                             7.75       43.00       44.75        4.50        0.00     B9.9
 
realized                                                                                      C4.6