Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.60897e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.04421e-06          16          78           5           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   9.10434e-08           1          38          59           2           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            18          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            18.25       58.75       21.50        1.50        0.00     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      B8.3