Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.44747e-05           2          18          74           6           0        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.80435e-05           2           8          81           8           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   2.01263e-07           1           0          74          24           1        C4.3
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                             5.00       23.00       61.25       10.25        0.50     C2.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5