Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.94679e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.26457e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.26471e-08          35          65           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            42.25       52.25        5.00        0.50        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B1.5