Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.22573e-06          30          67           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.25431e-06          24          74           1           1           0        B2.3
GOES Xray  =   2.21329e-09          80          20           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            46.25       50.25        3.25        0.25        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)