Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.99161e-06          13          79           7           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.22940e-05           9          64          26           1           0        B7.1
GOES Xray  =   1.14012e-07           2          19          73           6           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            18.75       50.50       28.75        2.00        0.00     B5.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9