Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.01985e-05          10          77          12           1           0        B4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.05996e-05          12          75          13           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   5.85316e-08           6          75          18           1           0        B6.3
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            19.75       66.75       13.00        0.50        0.00     B4.5
 
realized                                                                                      C4.6