Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.63512e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.16481e-06          16          77           7           0           0        B3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.37260e-07           1           6          80          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =             4          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            26.25       46.00       24.50        3.25        0.00     B3.4
 
realized                                                                                      B9.0