Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.71600e-06          47          50           3           0           0        B1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.76040e-06          22          74           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   6.03260e-08           6          74          19           1           0        B6.5
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            31.50       59.50        8.50        0.50        0.00     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B4.0