Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.94096e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.89182e-06          32          66           1           1           0        B1.9
GOES Xray  =   5.19790e-08           9          79          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            31.25       60.00        7.75        1.00        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B5.3