Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.00783e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.70722e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.75107e-09          64          36           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            50.00       44.50        5.25        0.25        0.00     B1.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)