Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.45937e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.13839e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.60334e-07           1           7          78          14           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            41.50       32.25       22.75        3.50        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B8.9