Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.99176e-05           3          33          60           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.43977e-05           1          12          79           8           0        C2.4
GOES Xray  =   1.11277e-07           2          20          73           5           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                             5.50       32.50       57.00        5.00        0.00     C1.3
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0