Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.42416e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.79203e-06          31          68           1           0           0        B1.8
GOES Xray  =   3.19659e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.4
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            27.75       64.00        7.50        0.75        0.00     B2.5
 
realized                                                                                      B3.7