Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.84735e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.55574e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   8.72358e-09          52          48           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                            44.00       45.50        9.50        1.00        0.00     B1.2
 
realized                                                                                      B1.1