Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.08924e-05           9          74          17           0           0        B5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.26485e-05           7          60          32           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   7.84369e-08           6          63          28           3           0        B8.1
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            11.00       63.75       23.75        1.50        0.00     B6.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.7