Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.02438e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.34442e-06          52          46           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.27751e-08          18          82           0           0           0        B2.4
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            35.75       59.00        4.75        0.50        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B2.7