Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.01320e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.52251e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   5.59330e-08           8          77          14           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            29.75       61.50        8.25        0.50        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B5.0