Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.38266e-06          52          45           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.47345e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   5.75060e-08           7          74          18           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =             4          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            36.50       55.50        7.75        0.25        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0