Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.05965e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.41901e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.26708e-08          35          65           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =             9          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            47.00       47.75        4.75        0.50        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6