Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.50410e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.49308e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.54882e-08           9          85           5           1           0        B5.1
est. ISN   =            33           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                            30.50       56.00       10.00        3.50        0.00     B3.1
 
realized                                                                                      B6.3