Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.26243e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.61093e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.03181e-08          15          85           0           0           0        B2.3
est. ISN   =            26           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                            34.50       54.50        9.50        1.50        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B2.5