Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.57286e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.53777e-06          15          77           7           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   5.54485e-08           7          78          14           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =            24           8          54          33           5           0        B6.5
 
together                            17.00       67.25       14.00        1.75        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      B4.7