Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.75938e-06          36          62           2           0           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.49313e-06          15          78           6           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   7.32061e-08           7          64          27           2           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            19.25       66.50       13.00        1.25        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B8.6