Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.59755e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.23556e-06          15          79           5           1           0        B3.3
GOES Xray  =   3.77974e-08          10          89           1           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            23.00       69.75        6.50        0.75        0.00     B2.9
 
realized                                                                                      B2.5