Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.68619e-05           4          47          46           3           0        B9.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.17276e-05           4          22          67           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.29158e-07           1          10          81           8           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            14.75       30.00       50.75        4.50        0.00     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6