Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.88640e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.00111e-06          59          38           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.32954e-08          34          66           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            49.75       47.00        3.25        0.00        0.00     B1.0
 
realized                                                                                      B1.3