Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.65523e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.93092e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   8.60224e-09          54          46           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            48.00       46.00        5.50        0.50        0.00     B1.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)