Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.38232e-06          52          45           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.80512e-06          31          68           1           0           0        B1.9
GOES Xray  =   5.84908e-08           6          75          18           1           0        B6.3
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            25.50       61.25       12.25        1.00        0.00     B3.1
 
realized                                                                                      B4.1