Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.39189e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.23147e-06          15          76           9           0           0        B3.7
GOES Xray  =   3.35942e-09          80          20           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            50.00       45.25        4.75        0.00        0.00     B1.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)