Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.59205e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.27788e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.03317e-08           9          81           9           1           0        B5.4
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            35.25       56.50        7.25        1.00        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B2.3