Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.34492e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.24186e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.94724e-08          17          83           0           0           0        B2.1
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            40.50       53.50        5.50        0.50        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B1.5