Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.25175e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.42360e-06          16          77           6           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   5.17028e-09          80          20           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            12          21          58          19           2           0        B2.9
 
together                            43.00       49.75        6.50        0.75        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)