Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.85503e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.85515e-06          16          76           8           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   5.87438e-09          76          24           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            42.25       50.50        6.75        0.50        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B1.2