Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.02507e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.63738e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.47666e-08           8          77          14           1           0        B5.8
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            43.75       49.25        6.75        0.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.5